bestplaytoearncrypto| Brief review of crude oil: Focus on demand and supply, international oil prices rebound

1. The market waits for key inflation data in the United States.

2. The expectation of strong gasoline demand in the United States supports oil prices.

The market is concerned about the prospect of improved demand, OPEC may delay production cuts, Canadian oil sands production may be reduced, international oil prices may rebound, and the falling exchange rate of the US dollar has also supported the sentiment in the crude oil futures market in dollar terms. Monday, May 13, New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas light crude futures settlement price of June 2024 79 per barrelBestplaytoearncrypto.12 US dollars, up 0% from the previous trading dayBestplaytoearncrypto.86 US dollars, up 1.10%, trading range 77.78-79.49 US dollars; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude 2024 July futures settlement price of 83.36 US dollars per barrel, up 0.57 US dollars, or 0.69%, over the previous trading day, trading range 82.26-83.84 US dollars.

China is an important oil consumer in the world, and the improvement of demand prospects has attracted much attention from the market. According to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on May 11, consumer demand in China continued to recover in April, and the overall price level rebounded somewhat. The national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% from the same period last year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. He Xiaoying, deputy director of the Analysis and forecasting Department of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, saidBestplaytoearncryptoFrom a year-on-year point of viewBestplaytoearncryptoChina's economy has rebounded for the better, the endogenous power has continued to strengthen, and the recovery of consumer demand has been further consolidated.

At the same time, China's producer price index fell 2.5% year-on-year. Looking ahead, China's domestic demand will continue to recover as policies to promote consumption and expand investment, such as large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, have been further effective.

Key US data released this week are expected to show a slowdown in inflation and economic growth. Media surveys show that the US consumer price index (CPI) released on Wednesday is expected to show that US core CPI rose 0.3 per cent month-on-month in April, down from 0.4 per cent in March. The US retail sales report will also be released on Tuesday and the US industrial production report will be released on Thursday. Some analysts say weaker data such as US CPI, retail sales and industrial production should put pressure on the dollar, as it will support the view that interest rates have peaked. Markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points as early as September and may cut rates again in December, a shift from previous fears that the Fed would even raise rates again to curb stubbornly high inflation. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.11% to close at 105.20 in New York on Monday.

Oil prices are supported by expectations of strong gasoline demand in the United States. The American Automobile Association (AAA) predicts that this year's Memorial Day travel will be the highest since 2005, and the number of road trips will be the highest since 2000. The long Memorial Day holiday marks the beginning of the American driving season, which is also the peak of gasoline demand until the end of Labor Day in early September.

On the supply side, oil prices have also been supported by expectations that OPEC and its production reduction allies will extend production cuts into the second half of this year. The oil minister of Iraq, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, told the state news agency on Sunday that the country is committed to reducing production. Earlier, he said on Saturday that Iraq would not agree to any additional production cuts proposed by the broader panel at its June 1 meeting.

The market is also looking at inventory data. Analysts generally estimate that U. S. crude oil inventories fell last week.

European crude oil stocks are also falling. European refiners held 1.014 billion barrels of crude oil and fuel stocks in April, down 0.3 per cent from March and 1.3 per cent from a year earlier, according to data released by industry watchdog Euroilstock. The main reason for the month-on-month decline in European crude oil and refined oil inventories is the decline in intermediate distillate stocks. European intermediate distillate stocks were 394 million barrels in April, up about 0.8 per cent from a year earlier and down 1.3 per cent from a month earlier, according to data. European crude oil inventories in April were 421 million barrels, down about 4.8 per cent from a year earlier, but up about 0.5 per cent from a month earlier. In April, European refineries processed an average of 9.159 million barrels a day, down 2.1 per cent from a month earlier and 2.3 per cent from a year earlier.

Last week speculators and management funds reduced their holdings of crude oil futures in Europe and the United States. In the week ended May 7, speculators held a total of 343345 net bulls in US light crude and Brent futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the London Intercontinental Exchange, down 116642 hands from the previous week, or 116.642 million barrels of crude oil.

The net long positions held by speculators in light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 18.8%. According to the latest statistics of the Commodity Futures Administration Commission of the United States, as of the week ended May 7, the position in crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 1836765 lots, an increase of 42223 lots. Large speculators held a net majority of 215444 hands in crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 50017 hands from the previous week. Among them, the number of bulls decreased by 32249 hands, and the number of bears increased by 17768 hands.

The management fund's net long positions in futures and options held by US light sweet crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased by 31.87%, while the net short positions in futures and options held by US light sweet crude oil in the ICE European market increased by 4.42%. According to the new classification, the net long positions held by management funds in crude oil futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to 117651 hands in the week ended May 7, down from 172689 in the previous week, with bulls falling by 37172 and bears increasing by 17866. The net short positions held by management funds in US light sweet crude futures and options in the London Intercontinental Exchange European market increased by-34954 from 33475 in the previous week, of which bulls fell by 234 and short positions increased by 1245.

The net long positions held by the management fund in Brent crude futures and options decreased by 18.74%. According to data analysis provided by ICE, 2929011 Brent crude oil futures and options positions were held in the week ended May 7, 65177 fewer than the previous week, while management funds held a net excess of 260648 Brent crude oil futures and options, a decrease of 60125 hands from the previous week. Among them, the number of bulls decreased by 53341, while the number of bears increased by 6784.

The net long positions held by the management fund in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 19.62%. According to data analysis provided by ICE, Brent crude futures held 2346596 positions in the week ended May 7, down 65401 hands from the previous week, while management funds held a net excess of 249727 lots in Brent futures, a decrease of 60965 hands from the previous week. Among them, the number of bulls decreased by 50633, while the number of bears increased by 10332.